马斯格雷夫论坛学术讲座

第83期

讲座主题：Market Interdependence: Evidence from Firms’ Responses to Tax Increases

主讲人：刘勇政

主持人：凌晨

时间：2024年5月7日（星期二）

地点：1号楼307会议室

主办单位：betvlctor网页版登录地方财政研究院、betvlctor网页版登录浙商资本市场研究院

协办单位：伟德国际1946源自英国官方网站

主讲人简介：刘勇政，中国人民大学吴玉章讲席教授、博士生导师，教育部重点人才计划入选者。研究方向为政府间财政关系和税收政策分析，成果发表于《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》、《政治学研究》, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Urban Economics, Governance, Public Administration等国内外知名期刊。主持国家社会科学基金重点项目、国家自然科学基金面上项目、青年项目等科研项目。曾获中国留美经济学会“最佳青年经济学者奖”、“邹至庄最佳论文奖”(1st Runner-up)、教育部高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖、全国优秀财政理论研究成果奖、北京市哲学社会科学优秀成果奖等。目前兼任Applied Economic Analysis(SSCI)、Economic and Political Studies期刊副主编。

摘要：This study examines how firms respond to export tax increases by adjusting sales across both product and destination markets. We first build a multi-product multi-destination model to show how capacity constrained firms translate negative tax shocks to a specific product-destination market into sale expansions in other product and destination markets. We then find strong evidence on this duel dimensional market interdependence effect of the Chinese exporters by exploiting a quasi-experimental setting of export tax changes and the detailed firm- and product-level trade data. Particularly, the results indicate that the increase in firms’ exposure to a negative tax shock for treated products is accompanied with significant increases in both their domestic sales and export sales for non-treated products. Further analysis shows the decline of marginal cost of production for the treated firms in the post-treatment period, which, in turn, supports production capacity constraint as the key mechanism for the detected market interdependence effects.